General News UK EU Referendum - 23/06/2016

We're four hours into 24/06 and the pound's already tanked more than it did on 24 October 2008 and 1992's Black Wednesday.

But we're fed up of experts right?

 

Unfortunately, this is just a continuation of the rise of nationalism that is happening in so many countries around the world. The pattern repeats itself, the major cities have more liberal views and vote accordingly but the surrounding country drown out their vote with strong conservative and more nationalistic views. This is probably going to end really badly and is a sad day in my eyes. :icon_sad:

 

Already saw "Make Britain British Again" on another site. Can only assume what that means...

 

I've discussed it to death and I voted to remain in the EU. I'm pretty sure I convinced several folk to vote remain

I've been watching the results. I'm gonna need a cold drink lol

 

I am very disappointed with the results. Leave seems to be winning. I'm proud that Scotland has chosen to remain and if we ever do leave the EU and a second Scottish Independence Referendum were to be held in the future, depending on how things are by then, I've pretty much already made up my mind. I voted for Scotland to remain in the UK with the hopes that the government would protect the interests of the Scottish people. However, this hasn't been the case.

It is very clear that the English and the Welsh want to get out of the EU but Scotland doesn't and Northern Ireland is leaning towards remaining. If Scotland is to be dragged out of the EU against its will then I do not see why the country should remain in the UK. Too many differences. It's probably going to be sad but I don't really dream of very powerful Scotland- if we end up poorer because we left the UK then that's for us to figure out but to be honest, I don't want Scotland to be powerful like the US, Russia or Germany. I want it to be a prosperous country with a vibrant economy and a high standard of living- something that I think can be achieved whilst being in the EU as an independent nation.

As of the moment, Scottish politicians are trying their best not to have a second referendum and I gather in the mean time that we'll just be forced to live with what England has to say.

 

A pound will now get you $1.33, it was $1.50 seven hours ago.

But hey we have control!

 

We're finally free! Everybody stick your middle fingers up in the general direction of Brussels: They can control us no longer!!

The disillusioned working class has spoken.

 

I was not following this as closely as I could have, but I didn't think the UK would actually leave. Like, what positive does that give?

The next events will be even more interesting. Scotland will definitely do another referendum, and I see it winning this time.

There are rumors about a united Ireland because Northern Ireland also wanted to remain in the EU. I don't know much about this, but this could be interesting.

All in all, I hope you guys don't get too many problems because of this, especially since most of you voted remain.

 

and so it will begin... the disintegration of the UK lol

 

I really thought I'd be happy with this but I'm filled with dred, this isn't going to end well...

 

Well, considering how the rest of my life is going to be excrement now, whatever I do and whereever I go... I really hope Leavers were right and Thames would run with milk and honey. But I suspect it won't.

 

Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp

 

With the polls going the way they are, I am going to say that I am deeply disappointed. The European Union is a force for peace, unity, stability and the expansion of liberal values around the globe thanks to the EU's collective heft as a single negotiating bloc.

I'll set out three main reasons for why I think Leave is a terrible idea and will come to haunt Britain and Europe as a whole. The first is simple and practical; the economic impact Brexit is likely to have on Britain and Europe as a whole. The second is addressing the issue of sovereignty and democracy. The third is the not particularly tangible but extremely important stabilising influence the Union has had on European politics and Britain's new place in the world. All three issues are inextricably linked and together form the pillars of modern Europe. I will ignore the heavy racism employed by many in favour of Brexit. I'd much rather take Brexit's best case and show that, even at its best, it is a worse option than remaining in the EU would have been.

On the economic impact, it's fair to say that the Pound will fall in value, the Euro might experience shock and Britain's purchasing power will reduce significantly, even if, I will concede, not disastrously. There aren't many winners from this, apart from the handful of antiquated manufacturing areas in the dilapidated North of England who will only receive a short respite from the process of globalisation and increased automation.

The advanced economy of London and much of the South-East will suffer; financial institutions will feel less confident in Britain's value outside of the EU and likely will reduce their presence, largely because Britain's economically liberal values will now no longer have Britain's voice and vote behind them in EU talks (which I'll expand on in my second point). On top of that, the reduced value of the Pound will diminish London's strength as an advanced, services-based economy with high purchasing power, which is a large part of what keeps Britain innovative and thriving.

Reduced consumer and investor confidence and the negative impact on most British business dealing in the Pound will shrink Britain's GDP much more than the payments to the EU would ever have costed Britain, even without the rebate Britain has had since Thatcher. Essentially, the fallout penalises the most advanced aspects of Britain's economy and rewards the least productive industries whose survival will still only be temporary (because such industry will decline anyway) and will benefit fewer Britons overall.

The government will have to respond with fiscal measures that won't be pretty. Higher taxes and cuts to services will have to be passed to deal with Britain's unnecessary new economic crisis. This will harm those on the lower end of the income scale and ironically harms those communities which benefit from a lower Pound above all; old manufacturing towns are reliant on subsidies and public services more than central London is, obviously. So those who theoretically could have benefited lose out anyway, unless the government decides to be fiscally irresponsible and not cut spending. One can hardly expect George Osborne to do that. It's not in the character of the Conservatives and if he did, it would be disastrous in the long-term.

So economically, you lose. Rather than the British lion roaring, it would appear to give a bit of a death rattle.

Now, sovereignty and democracy have been key elements of the Leave argument. The fable goes that a once proud parliamentary democracy has been brought to its knees by a cadre of Franco-German bureaucrats. Parliament is no longer sovereign. The Government is febrile and obsequious. Rampantly leftist European courts override the wisdom of British judges (they don't, or if they do, the British judges are interpreting the laws they must follow wrongly). Brussels and Strasbourg set ridiculous regulations about everything from welfare to the shape of vegetables to the standards mattress manufacturers must abide by.

Sadly for the tabloids and the Britons who voted to leave, it's just not that simple. I'll admit, the European commission isn't democratic. The European Parliament is not powerful enough to call the EU a wholly democratic body. Of course, I'll leave aside that delegations of twenty-eight democratic governments making decisions together is hardly a situation I'd call wholly undemocratic, either, nor is Britain immune from cumbersome bureaucracy itself.

So instead, let's take a look at what will happen when Britain withdraws. If Britain, as it necessarily will do, continues to trade with Europe, it has to follow those standards anyway. The goods it imports from Europe will inherently follow EU standards and the goods it exports will be forced to comply anyway. So much for getting rid of those silly rules, Britain must follow them anyway. But now, it will have only marginal influence on the setting of those rules. Its diplomats will wait in anterooms with the press waiting for decisions impacting the British economy to be made, along with Swiss and Norwegian representatives. No more British MEPs, no more British European Commissioners. Britain is now to be an outsider to decisions on vital British interests.

And just like those Swiss and Norwegians, Britain will have to pay around 80% of its current contributions to the EU to be part of the Common Market. But without taking part in setting the rules, Britain will have to just hope that they benefit the UK, which is unlikely given that the UK's economic liberalism is most shared by the Czech Republic, which without Britain can hardly sway French economic interventionists or German regulators who love a thoroughly mixed market.

And now the British Parliament and the Government, without the backing of the EU, are alone in a world in which Britain is just not that powerful. Trade deals will be negotiated alone. A nation of 64 million with a GDP of under US$3 trillion cannot shape terms as can a bloc of 400 million with a GDP of US$18.5 trillion. That means Britain can't shape terms with non-EU powers as well as it could as part of the EU.

So so much for sovereignty and influence on the world stage.

And a quick last point, given how much I've written already. The European Union has been a force for strength and unity in a continent so bitterly divided in centuries past. Its many weaknesses, especially lack of cooperation on defence and the Euro, are made no better by Britain leaving, and Britain has avoided the worst of it anyway. Britain will come out of this diminished. It will no doubt lose Scotland earlier than it might have, it will be less prominent a world power, its special relationship with the US will suffer and there will be no magical new age of Empire where Canada, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand will suddenly embrace the UK. But it's not just Britain. The EU will find it difficult to deal with the pre-1970s situation of having only two great powers. France and Germany will not have Britain to mediate between them and the other nations will be subject to Franco-German influence as never before.

I confidently expect the US will start paying more attention to Paris and Berlin than London in coming years thanks to this decision.

Those who voted to leave have hurt Britain. They have hurt it economically, they have weakened its diplomatic strength and they have consigned Europe to a weaker union and an imbalance of Franco-German domination which nobody wanted, least of all Paris and Berlin.

So celebrate, if you wish. But be aware that your sovereignty is no greater in reality than it was before today. Your power is no greater. Your international reputation is no greater. You are no richer.

You are weaker and poorer now. But why? All for a refugee scare campaign? A 'boo yah sucks' to Cameron and Osborne? A middle finger to Brussels?

The European project wasn't perfect, but you have done yourselves no favours.

 

Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5 years old?

 

Britain is screwed, Scots and Northern Irish heading for the life boats, Asian markets falling off a cliff, Pound now worth less than Bison Dollars and this is England and Wales right now -

 

No one really knows.

But in the short term, British party politics turns into something really nasty.


In a couple years, when UK would actually leave... It depends on the result of that really nasty thing. At a minimum, UK has no vote in Brussels, but still has very close ties through various treaties and trade deals that aren't officially part of the EU membership.

At a maximum, PM Farage bans eating kielbasa as un-British, Jaciobite dynasty rules Scotland, and the Europe is far more exciting, but slightly hungrier place to live in.

 

This is going to be the least satisfying "I told you so" I've ever had to say.

 

Whatever happens, the UK will still need to trade with the EU, only they will be EU rule-takers instead of rule-makers. More interesting still, the EU was willing to make concessions on immigration and other points of contention to keep the UK in the EU.

By the way, this referendum was a consultation...it isn't a binding vote, that is up to parliament, and given the closeness of this race a strong argument can be made that ultimately parliament will decide...Cameron really behaved like a sorcerer's apprentice on this one, just another example of politicians living in bubbles..

 

Technically yes, practically it doesn't matter. Defying the referendum, even if it wasn't political suicide for everyone concerned, is impossible, Cameron doesn't have the votes.