Senate Leadership Election 2014 preditions

With the polls you saw are you talking the state senate or federal senate?

 

Democrats will hold the majority (Hagan and Landrieu will both hold their seats for sure, the others probably will, too, except for West Virginia). We will also gain blue governors in Pennsylvania (Where Tom Wolf is up 25 points on Corbett) and Georgia (Carter is up 7 points on Deal), a blue senator in Georgia, and Harry Reid will stay President Pro-Tempore. Mitch McLoser will lose in Kentucky to Alison Lundergan-Grimes, so there will be a new minority leader.

 

The Republicans have around a 60% chance to take back the Senate, and they're going to maintain the House. They'll probably lose some governor seats, but will keep the majority of them.

The Senate race in Kentucky will be very close, but McConnell is going to win.

 

I don't know if McConnel will lose tbh.

 

McConnell is less popular in Kentucky than the President is.

 

Yet the race is still extremely close (McConnell is ahead) and Obama is very unpopular in Kentucky too (and nationwide).

It is quite hard to defeat incumbents, particularly ones who have been around for a long time and have a lot of money.

McConnell has a slight edge and he will narrowly win.

 

ALG still has over 4 months to run her campaign and begin to open up a lead on him. Michelle Nunn is also going to pick up Saxby Chambliss' seat in Georgia. If democrats win those two seats, we keep the senate even if Hagan and Landrieu and the others lose their seats.

 

If it were a presidential year, Hagan would be totally safe. But because it's a midterm that race will end up being close. She isn't a popular senator to begin with, and democrats will be voting more against Tillis than for her or anything. I'm sure much ado will be made about her lack of achievements on the senate floor.

I still think she has some advantage, due to the sheer unpopularity of the state's republican government. Thom Tillis was the speaker of the house in this state and he was the face of much of the things people hated that happened here last year. His general assembly control the state through gerrymandering and will continue to hold a majority of seats and will continue to push a radical agenda even after they lose a majority of the popular vote in both houses this year (which I'm positive will happen). NC is a moderate state, relatively evenly split politically between the progressive Triangle, Charlotte proper, Asheville, Greensboro and so forth, and then the conservative rural parts of the state, as well as Charlotte's dark red suburbs. But they're acting like this is Mississippi and they can just get away with passing stone-age laws.

 

I would so love if Nunn would get his Senate seat and that Carter will kick out Deal....

 

She still has time, but she's running in a state and an incumbent that will make it very difficult to win.

Nunn winning Georgia is far from as certain as you think. Georgia leans Republican, and Jack Kingston (who's ahead of Perdue by 11%) is tied with Nunn.

 

I think the election outcome will fall on whether the immigration reform bill will pass. This bill is something a super-majority of the U.S supports, so this obviously includes Republicans. If the Republican-controlled House does not pass this bill, not only will the Democrats have a higher chance of gaining more House seats, the chances of keeping the Senate will stay strong.

 

Grimes is ahead of McConnell as of yesterday, 49-46. I think we may just remain the same, Dems owned Senate & Repub owned House.

---------- Post added 13th Jun 2014 at 01:23 PM ----------

Yes, winning the house doesn't seem like a reality tbh. But gaining some definitely does. Recchia will surely defeat Grimm for a house seat in New York. The district leans Republican but Grimm, I'm sure you heard, has a lot of legal troubles. That's one seat! Haha.

 

Got a link to the Grimes/McConnell poll? The Huff Post just updated its polling page a day ago and they still have McConnell slightly ahead. 2014 Kentucky Senate: McConnell vs. Grimes - Polls - HuffPost Pollster

As for the House, it's likely that Republicans actually gain a couple seats.

 

Shocker: Republican Poll Finds Democrat Alison Grimes Leading Mitch McConnell 49%-46%

Hope that link works!

 

I think it will just end up being the same. Dems own senate repubs own house.

 

The minimum wage and marijuana legalization ballot measures may be Mark Begich's saving grace, Mary Landrieu is in the same situation as the Titanic, Kay Hagan might not survive, Montana and South Dakota are safe R, and I think Mark Pryor will survive, narrowly.

Michelle Nunn leads Jack Kingston by 7 in the last poll I saw and Alison Lundergan Grimes is up 3 in the most recent poll.

Even if Republicans win 6 seats in 2014 and win control of the Senate, Democrats are virtually guaranteed to win back the Senate in 2016 by defeating blue state Republicans. Mark Kirk in a state like Illinois in a Presidential year is facing an uphill battle to say the least. Ron Johnson, a Tea Party lunatic from Wisconsin, is losing badly in a hypothetical rematch with Russ Feingold, the progressive champion that he defeated in 2010 during the hysteria that resulted in Republicans winning complete control of Wisconsin. Then there's Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.

Point is, even if disaster strikes in 2014, we'll be okay in the end.