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Who do you endorse for president in 2020?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Andrew99, May 4, 2019.

  1. GayTurtle

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    I don't think presidents actually have very much direct impact on the economy. Definitely not immediate impact, other than in volatile measures like the stock market. Any president would have seen a significant economic recovery after the great recession, not just Obama and Trump, and the great recession was hardly Bush's fault. There are good reasons to think that tariffs don't make good economic sense and that free trade does. The recent good economics under Trump and the issues under NAFTA don't disprove those arguments any more than the opposite circumstances would prove them. Economics is a complicated and very noisy science.
     
    #101 GayTurtle, May 10, 2019
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  2. BMC77

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    I don't think he's done such a fantastic job. Low unemployment, sure, but lots of shitty, bad paying jobs. New tax plan, sure, but with massive tax cuts that really do nothing long term but make the rich happier. One reason for expecting a major crash (which I mentioned before): we saw this same recipe for disaster before of tax cuts and deregulation. It created a boom-bust cycle. Commentators (who have more knowledge than me) have said this. I personally have seen the shit hit the fan from such tax cuts/deregulation twice in my lifetime (Reagan in the 80s, and the George W. Bush era). I've also seen that "trickle down" economics doesn't work twice in my lifetime.

    Meanwhile, it can be effectively argued that investing in people (like free education) results in a better paid population, and those people with better pay will spend more, which helps the economy. What helps a car company more: the CEO getting more and more obscenely rich? Or people who can afford to buy that company's cars (and do so)? Supposedly, Henry Ford made it a point to pay his workers well so that they could afford to buy a Model T.


    We already had a powerful military. We were already spending an insane amount of money on military. Which did nothing (as far as I can see) but make the military-industrial complex happy.
     
    #102 BMC77, May 10, 2019
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  3. BMC77

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    Yes. I heard some progressive commentary earlier that discussed this. Of course, the commentator's suggested solution was (or probably would be) is running a progressive. Be bold. And all that.

    Certainly I have heard arguments that a candidate like Biden would be doomed to failure (and this was before those poll numbers were being discussed). The centrist "electable" candidate approach didn't work last time Trump ran.

    All that said...we are 1.5 years away from the next election, and that's the point that really matters. Anything can happen in the next 1.5 years. I'm already honestly wondering if 2020 will be crazier year than the one-time unimaginably crazy 2016 election year.

    And no matter what may happen, it is important not to get lulled into a sense that he'll lose. We saw that again and again in 2016. Everyone was convinced that Trump wouldn't become the nominee, and then (when that happened) be elected. And yet, he got elected. The same thing, no matter what numbers may say, can happen again.
     
  4. Austin

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    I would love Tulsi Gabbard! Someone said she is too liberal but I think she has some conservatism in her. I don’t love Bernie as much as I did last time; he is a little too extreme. I like Warren, but at the same time she really irritates me. And hmm... Andrew Yang — seriously??? Not sure how I feel about Biden. It’s weird because he has a ton of name recognition but I don’t know what’s he is running on — that’s he’s an old white man who isn’t Trump? There’s a few barf democrats running who I’d vote for Trump instead of. Not that my vote matters in California.

    I hope the democrats don’t make this an identity politics election like last time.
     
  5. BMC77

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    I think that's pretty much Biden. Some have cynically said he'll embrace many of the same sorts of policies that hurt people, but he'll be nicer. (Obviously there are exceptions, like LGBT issues. But expect him to be more interested in corporations than people.)
     
  6. BMC77

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    Unfortunately, I think Democrats will make heavy use of identity politics. It seems to be part of their standard toolkit now. In many cases, many candidates probably need it because they can't run on policy because their policies won't really appeal to normal people. What sounds better? "I'll be the first woman president if elected!" Or "If elected, my policies will kiss the ass of corporate America!"
     
  7. Destin

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    This sounds good conceptually but isn't true in reality. It just causes education-inflation. 75 years ago you could get a decent job as a high school dropout, a good job with a high school diploma, and a great job with a bachelors degree. Pretty much nobody except physicians and professors had higher degrees than that because it wasn't needed.

    Then more people started going to college, and suddenly now high school dropouts can't get any job at all really, a high school diploma only qualifies you for minimum wage, an associates degree qualifies you for the lower-end jobs you used to only need high school for, a bachelors degree is necessary to get the higher-end jobs a high school diploma used to qualify you for, and you need a masters or doctorate degree for a lot of the same jobs a bachelors degree used to get you (MBA, law degree, pharmacist, physical therapist etc.)

    If we make associate and bachelors degrees free, all it's going to do is push everything up another educational level. Right now everyone has a high school diploma because it's free. If bachelors degrees were free also, then everyone would have those as well. Once everyone has that, the only way to stand out from everyone else to get completely average jobs is having a masters/doctorate, and the pay will still be lower than it is now because the market will be more saturated with all these degree holders applying for jobs. Which is exactly what has happened in Europe from what I've heard, where college is free. It's just expected that all college students will go on to get a masters there.

    There's really no reason to be making people get all these advanced degrees just to get the same job they could have gotten as an 18 year old high schooler a few generations ago, but free education will cause both that and decreased salaries due to a larger availability of qualified workers fighting for the same jobs.

    To answer the original post though, I like Biden.
     
  8. BMC77

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    I do see merit in the grade inflation argument. Indeed, I saw merit in this argument long ago when one of my cousins was college aged, and planning for an advanced degree. My uncle commented it seemed almost necessary, because a college degree wasn't worth as much as it had been. I can't remember when all this took place, but it was the 1990s.

    Of course there is one argument to be made for more education: the world has changed a lot (and become more and more complicated) since the era when high school was the highest level of education many got.

    That said... Free college or not, the inflation has already taken place. The problem is that with the current situation people are left with crippling debt. A cartoon was floating around the Internet recently that showed some old man celebrating with a big cake. One nurse says to the another something like: "I thought his 90th birthday was last month!" The second nurse says: "It was. He's celebrating that he just paid off his student loan debt!" This is amusing...but it will also be reality as things stand for many, many people.

    I also think there is value for education past mere job market considerations. Although, unfortunately, this argument is pretty much lost in today's world, which has reached a point of viewing education as nothing but job training.

    My bigger concern is actually that it may become too easy getting a degree. I don't mean from a financial view--I mean that standards may slide to make sure everyone gets a "necessary" degree. Standards, I've been told, were once a lot higher for high school degrees--probably one reason why a high school degree was worth more once. In fact, I remember one story about a 60s student who showed up to high school the entire time, and still didn't graduate because he couldn't meet the standards. (The school apparently gave some official recognition short of a degree.) I was frankly shocked, because by my time a mere 20 years later, if you had a pulse, you got a degree.

    At the same time, though, I think we, as a society, need to be considering more than making college affordable. We need to recognize that the college track is not the right one for a lot of people. Other forms of education (that are more job training specific) are important and valuable.
     
  9. Destin

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    As a current college student, I can assure you that has already happened unfortunately. STEM degrees are still pretty much the same difficulty as before, but non-STEM degrees (except some business ones) are now a show up, pay your money, get a degree type of situation. It's really, really, hard to get less than a C, or even less than a B, in a lot of classes now. I've seen people not do any of the homework, almost never come to class, never take notes, not buy the textbook, skip a test or even two tests completely, and never study...yet they still get a C- in the class and pass. The issue is very apparent in introductory level science classes. The non-science majors occasionally take intro biology or something and are completely shocked when they end up with an F using the same strategies that usually get them a B. This is at a top 25 public university too, so I imagine the issue is more severe at lower ranked schools.

    I agree with you. It sounds harsh, but honestly like 25% of the people I've met in college shouldn't have gone to college and would be much better suited for a trade school. Their 2.1 GPA in sociology they went $30,000 in debt for isn't going to do them much good, but becoming a welder or something for $10,000 would have.
     
    #109 Destin, May 12, 2019
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  10. BMC77

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    I guess I can't say I'm terribly surprised...

    Maybe, maybe not. I don't have the background to comment. But I do know I've heard complaints about the quality of students going into science at a local college (respected, regionally ranked private college) vs. years ago. If students are getting worse, then the demands might be less demanding in order to have students pass. I'll have to do some research.
     
  11. Lenalolli

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    Kamala Harris!!! She values women's rights, immigrants rights, and, well...human rights!!!
     
  12. LaurenSkye

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    The main election is a year and a half away. I can't believe everyone is talking about this already. That being said, I'm not picking Biden or Sanders because they are too old. Being president is a 4-8 year commitment. At that age they are more likely to face serious health problems. Plus, in general, we need some young blood. The presidential election is the only place someone in they're late 40's can be considered young.
     
  13. Destin

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    I kind of like presidents being old. It's a guaranteed safety net against dictatorships and getting too much power. Trump for example, even if he went insane with power and tried to stay in office after his term ends, big deal, he'll be dead a few years later anyway. The worst thing that can happen is someone like Fidel Castro who is young and stays in office for like 60 years.
     
  14. Libra Neko

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    Whoever can kick Trump's sociopathic ass to the curb!
     
  15. RavenTheRat

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    All I do know is I'm very doubtful Trump will be re-elected.

    First, I'm sure that a good handful of votes he got were due to the fact that between him and Hillary, many hated Hillary more. (My dad was like that. He would have voted for literally anyone else but Clinton against Trump.
    And second, I'm quite convinced (though I'll admit I don't know any statistics) that he has lost more supporters during his presidential term than he has gained. I think a lot of people are becoming concerned about his mental state, like saying windmills cause insanity and cancer, or who are uncomfortable with how extreme some of his rhetoric has become. And I have met a good number of people, especially LGBT people, who supported him initially but then regretted it. Just from personal experience, I've met way more people who used to support him and now don't, than I have people who didn't support him and now do. Plus I think there are definitely conservatives out there who would rather support a different candidate.

    Personally, I wouldn't mind a conservative president at all, but I would definitely like a president who treats Democrats like at least part of this country rather than some elusive enemy out to destroy the country... It's not even because I'm a Democrat, I'd be bothered the same way if a Democrat candidate about conservatives spoke the way Trump does about 'the liberals'. I know that policy-wise he's actually done quite a bit of productive work, but I just can't accept his rhetoric, and though I support stronger immigration laws and borders, I strongly disagree with how he speaks about immigrants and how his administration has handled them. He's just too extreme for me.
     
    #115 RavenTheRat, May 14, 2019
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  16. Mike92

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    That may be accurate for 100 level courses where you're just learning the basics of a field at some schools, but my Political Science program at a small private liberal arts university was very challenging. In fact, I'd say it was probably more challenging than my graduate degree was at a well-known university in D.C. I've been successful professionally because of my liberal arts education. I have met quite a few STEM folks who have atrocious writing skills and can't name the three branches of government or the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

    But yes, there's plenty of people who aren't college material and it's a pipe dream to think the U.S. can afford to make college free, anyway.
     
    #116 Mike92, May 14, 2019
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  17. Nickw

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    The tuition at my school for my STEM degree is 15 times the cost it was when I graduated in the early eighties. A grad makes about 3 times what I did. So, the cost of my education has really crept up relative to the wages in my major.

    And, my old school was recently ranked as a "top value" in education.

    Admittedly, when I went to school higher education was much more susidized than it is now. But, student loans were very hard to come by too.

    I think this is one of those things where students are encouraged to go into debt and that causes tuition inflation. Not sure free tuition is a good idea or not. I had free tuition because of scholarships yet worked at least half time through all of my schooling just to pay room and board.

    Then there is the lost income to get the degree. Part of my issue was needing to help out financially at home with younger siblings. I think this is more common these days. I was, abnormally, poor for college in my time. But, I think there are a lot more folks that come from lower income families now that are college material.

    Wages just stagnated for so many people for so long.
     
  18. BMC77

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    Makes one wonder what the situation would be like at a "worst value" institution!
     
  19. Destin

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    Based on what I've heard from professors, the government is responsible for the huge tuition increases. Once they made it so anyone can take out huge federal student loans at the drop of a hat (the current maximum amounts anybody can get from the government are $58,000 for undergraduates and $138,000 for graduate students), the universities realized they could charge pretty much whatever they felt like since students can easily get a higher guaranteed loan to pay it. They just keep raising the tuition endlessly because people keep paying them anyway, so there's no reason not to.

    It's actually genius on their part honestly, the government gives you money to then immediately give back to them by paying a public university, and continue to make money off you from interest without losing a single cent themselves, since other than private schools all the money was put back into the government anyway.
     
  20. Destin

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    I like to use Cooley Law School in Michigan as an example of that. It costs $50,000 per year, and only 25% of their graduates get a job in the legal field. Only 49% get literally any job doing anything in any field a year after graduating. All of the jobs are low paying too.

    It's disgusting schools like that are allowed to stay open, trapping people in $150,000 of student debt for life since they'll be unemployed or never making more than $40,000 with their law degree. They also made up their own ranking system and listed themselves as #2 behind Harvard to trick students into thinking they're a good school.