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General News The probability of a TRUMP presidency

Discussion in 'Current Events, World News, & LGBT News' started by danbriate69, Oct 8, 2016.

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  1. danbriate69

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    Polls are wrong:

    Everyone is underestimating the dynamics of a populist president and how wrong polls can be. Check out Brexit but also all European populist elections and polls are always wrong.

    People think the gridlock will prevent him from being too
    Trump is terrorizing and he will not accept critiscm. his presidency will be a disaster and even our freedom is at risk.
    His plan to end birthright citizenship runs afoul of the 14th Amendment. His threat to “open up those libel laws” so he can sue his critics is a threat to press freedom.

    The supreme court will be conservative for generations to come: this will have consequences on LGBT rights, women rights, global warming etc..

    All eyes on Florida. Without Florida there are almost no scenarios where the loser of Florida can win.

    Currently, Clinton's insiders believe Florida may be lost but this can be turned around and the Campaign will change its focus but they need monez.

    Clinton needs to increase dynamics within the millennials and the Hispanics. Unfortunately her dollars have been squandered in TV ads. To move them we need social media and live events.

    With more money we can turn this around. I personnally have given to the 2 super pacs very active in Florida.
     
  2. Andrew99

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    Hilary's gonna be the next president.
     
  3. Chip

    Board Member Admin Team Advisor Full Member

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    Um, this is a little out of date. Nate Silver basically just said it's over, and he bases that, as always, on data. He says the speed with which Republican operatives have publicly dumped Trump is unprecedented, and points to a disastrous turn.

    Meantime, the RNC pretty much lost its chance to put up somebody else, because about a dozen key states (high electoral votes) have already passed their deadline for changing names on the ballots.

    And even if the most recent tapes don't kill Trump's remaining chances, apparently the head of the RNC has cut off all funds and resources directed toward Trump and redirected them toward down-ticket candidates. Since Trump has almost no staffing, no get-out-the-vote, no money to advertise, and no ground game, that was all coming from the RNC. They appear to be done.

    Trump is pretty much a done deal and the Repubs are most likely dead in the water.

    If we're lucky, we'll recapture at least the senate, and there's a fighting chance we might take the House back as well. This could be awesome.
     
  4. Austin

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    Why are you just here advertising? You should be banned.
     
  5. Pret Allez

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    I'd be extremely surprised but pleasantly so if this causes the Republicans to lose.
     
  6. anthracite

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    I think it's gonna be Clinton but I actually hope for Trump. He probably won't invade somewhere. I wish you could just keep Obama, as both are a choice between cancer and aids.
     
  7. ABeautifulMind

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    The CNN polls after the VP debate show that "neither" got 54% of the vote. from a poll on who would you vote for if the election was right now....

    Everyone is looking at this wrong, this is no longer a 2 party race. If you dont like Trump or Clinton, vote your conscience and vote for the Green Party. If you liked Bernie, you should already be voting Green...
     
  8. Cinis

    Cinis Guest

    The accuracy of polls depends on their closeness to the actual vote and the methods used.
    The polls on the actual vote days are particularly accurate (to the percent to be precise) because people are asked who they voted right after they have voted thus giving actual numbers to work with.
    People that change their opinion or are uncertain obviously change the polls from actual outcomes (those far away from the actual votes) but the closer we are to the actual votes the less this percentage becomes.
    The problem with brexit etc weren't the polls but that people and foreign leaders didn't believe them.
    So don't blame the polls they are very accurate maths. Can't argue with maths.

    ---------- Post added 9th Oct 2016 at 11:34 AM ----------

    The problem is that some people will think that he has no chance and still vote for Hillary to fend off trump.
    If the anti trump camp votes devided for green and Hillary then trump will still have the most votes from all candidates even though most people voted against him.
     
  9. Chip

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    There's zero chance that either Green or Libertarian party candidates can win. So a vote for one of them is effectively one vote closer to a Trump presidency. Though... with the latest meltdown, that risk may be effectively mitigated.

    If we're talking about someone qualified to be president, neither of the third-party candidates are remotely qualified. Johnson appears to be dangerously ignorant, and has a lot of really wacky ideas.

    And Stein is a joke. One of the most disingenuous, double-talking, evasive, narcissistic candidates I've run across in recent years (though Trump makes her look like Mother Theresa.) No elective office experience, on the lunatic fringe with some of her conspiracy-theory-like beliefs, and basically acting like a politically active college sophomore who has no idea of the complexity of the issues she's trying to argue. Add to that some of her immature attention-getting stunts and... this is not someone anybody should be giving serious consideration to.
     
  10. BMC77

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    Awesome? Maybe... That depends entirely on what happens if Democrats get full control of Congress plus the Presidency. Will they actually do anything towards fixing the problems in this country? Will they actually listen to the anger and frustration that many Sanders supporters--including me--have? Will they actually follow through on the most progressive platform in history? Or is that platform only to get the votes of Sanders supporters, and will be used to line a bird cage come January once our votes are no longer needed?

    ---------- Post added 9th Oct 2016 at 03:27 AM ----------

    It also hugely hinges on the state in question. A vote for a 3rd party candidate in a swing state may result in Trump winning that state, and possibly the election. But in other states, such votes--at least in moderation--won't have much influence. My state, for example, is just about a guaranteed win for Clinton. Last time a Republican candidate for President won this state was 1984 (Reagan's second run).
     
  11. sldanlm

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    More money is not going to change a thing at this point. Although die hard Trump supporters will still support him even if he shoots somebody, (like he said once) he has virtually no chance of actually winning the presidency at this point. Not only that, but my guess is it's going to be the worst loss for a candidate in recent history. Whether that influences the voting for the House and Senate however, is another matter. People who have voted for a particular candidate for the House or Senate for the last few election cycles aren't going to suddenly vote Democratic just because they're NOT voting for Trump. In their eyes Clinton is merely the lessor of two evils, not someone they want to vote for.

    You might see the Democrats retaking the Senate this year, only because the numbers there are tighter. Whether an individual Senate race has anything to do with Trump or not is unknown, because no Republican Senator race I've heard of has been trying to ride Trumps coattails. In fact it's the other way around in some places.

    ---------- Post added 9th Oct 2016 at 09:22 AM ----------

    Good questions. Why doesn't someone ask the Wall street donors that contributed massive amounts of money to her campaign?
     
  12. JonSomebody

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    I really don't like discussing politics and one thing that really annoys me is when people try to speculate who is going to be the next president before the actual election has taken place. They did the very same thing twice with President Obama's election where they had been saying prior to both elections that he was not going to win and yet...he won twice. All in all...you never know what is the final verdict until that last vote is counted. As far as all of the polls are concerned...I think they are bogus and just something that the media feeds to the public to keep things going. I've always wondered who were these so called people who vote in these polls and why I have never been asked to or anyone else I know????
     
  13. Blackbirdz

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    Um, nope. This is garbage logic. We've already been through this on other similar topics. A vote for a third party candidate is just that. It is not a vote for Trump.
     
  14. AwesomGaytheist

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    Except that it is. Here's some basic math for you:

    Let's suppose in our hypothetical state that Donald Trump gets 1 million votes. Hillary Clinton gets 900,000 votes, and 150,000 Bernie supporters are still throwing their tantrum and vote for Jill Stein. Who wins? Donald Trump in a plurality.

    Now let's suppose those BernieBros wise up and vote for Hillary Clinton. Now the total is Hillary 1,050,000 to Donald Trump's 1 million votes. Now who wins?

    It's happened before. Al Gore lost New Hampshire because 11,000 lefties voted for Ralph Nader. If Gore won NH, Florida would have been irrelevant. In the 2010 Senate election in Illinois, Republican Mark Kirk won by 33,000 votes because 129,000 so-called liberals threw their votes away on the Green Party candidate. Do I need to continue, because there are plenty more examples.

    ---------- Post added 9th Oct 2016 at 03:51 PM ----------

    And if you think the polls are all wrong and that Donald Trump will carry 49 states, look what happened the last time they said that:

    [youtube]2It6SEnzUNo[/youtube]
     
    #14 AwesomGaytheist, Oct 9, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2016
  15. Cinis

    Cinis Guest

    It's maths , stochastik, something you learn in school. And with how large the US population is of corse the likelyhood of getting asked yourself is fucking low but that doesn't mean they just pull off those polls out of their arse. You can google it if you didn't learn it in school it's not a miracle so ...no need to call it " bogus" before you actually fucking know how it works.
    And they are a lot more accurate than all the speculations people keep throwing around.

    ---------- Post added 9th Oct 2016 at 10:37 PM ----------

    Sorry, that was rude but it just really riles me up when people criticize things without even trying to understand them first.
     
  16. JonSomebody

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    You are so right..that was really rude and ignorant of you...I have the right to comment or say what I feel on this topic and I am not the only one who has voiced the exact view on this... I even heard celebrities and news moderators make the exact comment...so apparently...we all can't be ignorant or stupid for thinking the same thing especially when we don't even know each other...so if you felt that you were going to get all bent out of shape over my comment then you know what....keep your b.s. to yourself ...or just let it go altogether...this is what I do when I see topics, responses, or opinions that I may have issues with or have disagreements with instead of lashing out the way you did. When I do make responses or comments to a topic...its not using profane language or calling people names...I try to make thought provoking comments for them to think...unlike you...:eusa_doh::eusa_naug
     
    #16 JonSomebody, Oct 9, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2016
  17. Lazuri

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    There's little need for discussion in this thread; the threadstarter is obviously just advertising, seeing how they registered, made this thread and hasn't said anything since.
     
  18. Daydreamer1

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    A world where Trump is president is one I don't want to live in.
     
  19. johndeere3020

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    Study your history books people. Trump sounds to me like he will be our version of Adolf Hitler!
     
  20. midwestgirl89

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    I wouldn't be surprised if previously red states turned blue in this election. He basically stabbed and shot himself in both feet in the debates and with recent events. I think polls are close to accurate because of how polarizing he has been. People underestimate how important gathering the votes of women, PoC, and other minority groups is. Latinos are one of the fastest growing demographics and I can't imagine he has gained any favor with them. He just made a terrible statement about women. His voting demographic will mainly be rich or middle class white men and even they don't want to vote for someone who can't form sentences or seems to support Russia. Trump is basically dead in the water with his campaign.
     
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