General News Anyone Else Watching The Republican Debate?

I agree, she's got this.

 

And I bet you're the type who shrieked, gleefully and triumphantly, that the FN were gonna to win last week.

lol

 

I didn't watch the debates. I don't think Trump is going to be the Republican nominee in the end, but anything's possible. The only reason he's high in the Republican polling is there is so many other people running. I say "high" in a relative way, 20% shouldn't be high at all. Really though it's too soon to tell. Polls don't mean as much as actual votes. When the number of candidates gets down to 3-4, then see what happens.

 

The Republican Party is a very good representation of Western values.

 

Are you referring to Le Pen & Co.? Not at all I knew it wouldn't work in the end but for the wrong reasons and sure enough they didn't manage due to (desperate) tactical voting.

Lol.

 

Umm no he doesn't! hehehe Hilary has a much better chance and only time will show on that. Remember when she talked for 11 hours at Benghazi? Yea the plan was to destroy her but instead she made herself look even better. She is undefeatble typhoon!

What does trump do? Talk about how we need to deport Mexicans how they're all rapist how we need to ban ALL Muslims from the United States and then talk about how much the other candidates suck. Gee that oughta get him in office in no time! :rolle:

So therefore Hilary is going to be the next president! (*hug*)

 

Trump won't become president. For this to happen, he'd be needing to get a very comfortable win amongst Republicans (which isn't happening), because he certainly won't be getting many votes from anyone to the left of them, such as swing voters who typically decide elections in most countries.

If his country didn't have an unfair two-party system, extremist or niche politicians would stand a better chance of having a real influence.

 

The U.S. electorate actually has very few swing voters anymore. Elections are much more about turning out your base voters rather than appeal to a middle that isn't really there.

Trump is not that extreme compared to the rest of the GOP candidates. The biggest difference between him and Ted Cruz is that Trump doesn't care to dress things up in euphemism. As far as actually policy they would pursue as president, they're both insanely awful.

---------- Post added 17th Dec 2015 at 12:18 PM ----------

Edit to add

the us system allowed dick Cheney to gain power so I don't think it's the case that our insanely complicated government protects extremists from gaining power

 

It is much too soon to tell who will be president. Anyone who says differently is engaging in wishful thinking.

However, IF Trump gets it, Typhoon, after he rounds up the Muslims and Mexicans, he's gonna round up your sorry gay butt next, and you will rue the day you voted for him. The man is clearly a classic fascist.

 

George Pataki is the lone LGBTQ supporter if I am not mistaken. He wont have a chance in hell of getting the nomination but it is notable that he is the most progressive of all of the GOP candidates

 

Additionally, its worth noting, as I did before, that if Rubio were to get the Republican nomination, polling shows a much closer hypothetical race between Clinton and Rubio.

Also, its worth noting that Clinton has had some difficulty connecting with black voters, who are the most reliably democratic voters in the last several election cycles. If this continues, Black turnout may be lower, making the race even closer.

 

^

 

Why bother with a political debat which in my case is in another country

 

Did I say I was voting for him? :rolle: Classic way of putting words in other people's mouth. Or in this case, their fingers.

 

Fair enough, my bad. You did not say that you were voting for Trump.
If you aren't a Trump enthusiast, why are you so sure he'll win?
Are you just that pessimistic that the US is an inherently fascist country?

 

Whatever it may be I have no doubt in my mind trump is not going to win. He's just too silly and ignorant. I'm almost positive Hilary will win. Sure she's got scandals but what politician doesn't? Also she's already got California and New York all she needs is Ohio and Florida and she will be the next president of the United States (!) :eusa_danc

 

I seriously hope not.

---------- Post added 18th Dec 2015 at 02:53 PM ----------

She'll need to take New Hampshire and Iowa. Sanders is leading in New Hampshire. The first primary influences the election a lot. Although, Clinton is leading in Iowa... but a lot can change. She'll probably win the Iowa caucus.

 

Oh skaros you and I know she's going to be the next president. She's already won the election! If anyone's going to beat her they will have to have at least 60% in the polls.

 

Andrew, if you're talking about the general election, then I think your daft for drawing conclusions that are premature and contrary to the available data. And your 60% figure is pure bullshit, because its not consistent with statistical theory nor the data.

Consider the current Real Clear Politics polling averages between the following hypothetical matchups of the leading candidates:
* Clinton vs. Trump: 48.8 vs. 42.2 (Clinton +6.6)
* Clinton vs. Cruz: 47.4 vs. 44.8 (Clinton +2.6)
* Clinton vs. Rubio: 45.2 vs. 46.8 (Rubio +1.6)
* Clinton vs. Carson: 46.2 vs. 45.8 (Clinton +0.4)
* Clinton vs. Bush: 45.0 vs. 44.5 (Clinton +0.5)

Now, the margin of error on any given poll is usually between 2% and 4%. When you average the polls, the total sample size gets larger, but there is also considerable variance between the poll means, so the RCP average margin of error is typically still somewhere between 2-4%.

All of the margins between Clinton and the Republicans are less than the margin of error, except for Trump.

Therefore, if Trump gets the nomination, Clinton will likely win. But if any other candidate gets the GOP nomination, the election wound be much too close to call at this point.

Furthermore, Nate Silver, the poll nerd who correctly predicted the last two election results with a very high degree of accuracy, won't even make predictions this early in the election cycle, because he believes they are worthless this far ahead.

Wishing something does not make it so; reality bats last.